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美联储加息背后的好消息:抵押贷款利率正在下降

Average rates for the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage continued their decline since mid-November to 4.62 percent this week

十月,九个海湾地区的待售房屋数量较前一年急剧下降,根据加州房地产经纪人协会的一份新报告。然而,由于购房者烧毁了所列房产数量微薄,一些县的销售量实际上有所增加。这是1950平方英尺,萨拉托加Paseo Presada的四居室住宅上市价为170万美元。(Courtesy Redfin)
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While the Federal Reserve rate hikes have rattled stock markets,这可能通过帮助降低贷款利率间接地使购房者受益。

基准30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率自11月中旬以来持续下降,本周降至4.62%抵押流动性提供商Freddie Mac reported.这远远高于一年前的平均3.94%,but reflected an ongoing decline from this year's peak of 4.94 percent in November.

"It's nothing but good news for home buyers — assuming they didn't lose their down payment because the market fell," said Dick Lepre,阿拉莫RPM抵押贷款高级贷款顾问。

The Fed's rates determine what banks charge each other short-term,不是长期抵押贷款,which tend to follow the trends for 10-year U.S.Treasury notes,麻风解释说。国债收益率tend to fall as more people turn to them as a safe investment.随着股市的边缘化,投资者对外国投资信心不足,更多人转向国债,他说。

“我们即将启动国债的长期牛市,这将推动明年的抵押贷款利率下降,”莱普说。"It's just gaining momentum."

15年期固定利率和5年期可调利率混合贷款的平均利率也在下降,Freddie Mac reported in its weekly data.

周五更新的平均费率和posted by Zillowciting multiple lenders were 4.41 percent for a 30-year fixed loan of $300,000 with 20 percent down and a credit score above 750.15年期固定贷款平均为3.81%,5年期可调混合贷款平均为4.08%。

In California and especially the Bay Area,many buyers need bigger loans to cover the region's inflated home prices,but rates also have been subsiding for those.大额贷款利率-超过726525美元的金额-平均为4.28%,还有一周前,Zillow报道。

房地美曾预测,明年平均30年期抵押贷款利率将达到5.1%。That's still low historically — rates topped 18 percent in the early 1980s and 6.5 percent in 2008 before the mortgage market meltdown that triggered the Great Recession.

但最新的趋势表明利率正在向另一个方向移动。

Sam Khater,房地美的首席经济学家,在周四的一份声明中说,最近抵押贷款利率的下降已经在全国房地产市场感受到了,where房屋销售上升在经历了六个月的衰退之后的10月和11月,尽管仍低于去年的水平。

"This modest rebound in sales indicates that home buyers are very sensitive to mortgage rate changes — and given the further drop in rates we've seen this month,we expect to see a modest rebound in home sales as well," Khater said.

Home sales,然而,remained down in the West,劳伦斯·云,全国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家,他说:“消费者对买房的情绪最差,largely due to lack of affordable housing inventory."

莱斯利·阿普尔顿·杨,chief economist for the California Association of Realtors,他说,总体经济不确定性令买家暂停购买。

“我们还没有看到低利率对房地产市场活动的任何影响,which we hope to see and should see," Appleton-Young said."At some point earlier this year — it may have been in reaction to the tax reforms,关税-人们开始袖手旁观,买家开始采取观望态度,even at the more entry level of the market."

As Rick Smith,broker at Windermere Real Estate in Santa Clara and past president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors,put it,“他们不想成为那个高价买房的人。”

但事情如此不确定,agents are advising both buyers and sellers not to wait.房产在市场上停留的时间更长,and buyers are finding more sellers willing to negotiate on price.

"My current clients who are sellers,我给他们的建议是把它放到市场上尽快卖出去,因为下一个卖家可能不得不以更低的价格出售房产,”史密斯说。

John Espinosaagent with Heritage Realty Group in Morgan Hill,said sellers' willingness to negotiate prices has had a bigger effect on his buyers than recent swings in mortgage rates.

"Rates are still good,有更少的买家购物现在,卖方愿意谈判,”埃斯皮诺萨说。“买家现在得到了一些不错的交易。”

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